The short answer is absolutely! Senate District 24 may have been a predominately Republican district in the past, but this year has seen a lot of changes and wild cards that will all work to our advantage in flipping the district.
First, the recent redistricting saw district 24 shifted south and incorporating some of the area west of San Antonio. According to the Texas Partisan Index, this actually weakened the district for Republicans. This is because many of the counties surrounding Bexar county still have a large number of Democratic voters.
Second, with Beto O’Rourke in the race for governor, we will see a lot of increased excitement for the entire Democratic ticket. Beto may not win the governorship, we’ll find out in November, but no one can deny his charisma in getting people out to the ballot box.
Third, in 2020 we saw record turnout for voting. Of course that was a presidential election year and we usually don’t see the same turnout for midterm elections. But the stakes have changed a lot compared to elections in the past. People know that these midterms are just as important as a presidential election. Especially this year after redistricting has put almost every congressional and state legislative district on the ballot.
When we look at the voter turnout numbers in the past, it becomes obvious that Texas is neither a red or blue state, but actually a non-voting state. Texas historically has some of the lowest voter turnouts in the US. This is because most districts have been considered solidly red or blue, and the representatives there have not been motivated to try and get more people out to vote. On top of that, other parties have typically not been motivated to even try running in some districts, especially rural ones. So many people simply did not vote at all because they didn’t have someone to vote for.